The Hurricane Hunters

  Images courtesy of NOAA and Hurricane Hunters Association 

Hurricane Hunters are a breed of special individuals dedicated to inform the current strength of a tropical cyclone, location and direction over the open ocean. This team of individuals are primarily made up of pilots, navigator, meteorologist, technicians and a special aircraft to fly into the tropical cyclone. There are two teams of hurricane hunters one that fly out from Kessler Air Force Base in Mississippi, the 53d weather reconnaissance squadron using a WC-130J Hercules aircraft to penetrate the tropical cyclone and the other the NOAA Hurricane Hunters divided up into two aircrafts that fly out from MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida. NOAA uses the Lockheed WP-3D turboprop and the Gulfstream IV-SP jet for high altitude surveillance over and around the tropical cyclone. All of the weather observations taken from around, over and inside the tropical cyclone from the "Hurricane Hunters"are transmitted via satellite to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida inorder to place Tropical Storm and Hurricane watches or warnings if needed also to better predict where the tropical cyclone may go. The information gathered by the "Hurricane Hunters" when flying into a tropical cyclone is essential in keeping the public safe and informed inorder to protect life and property.
See video on "Hurricane Hunters":https://youtu.be/JulJhamN7d8

Steaming In July

July has gotten to ahead start with high temperatures in the lower 90's, overnight lows in the steaming low to mid 80's and heat indexes between 100 and 108 degrees fahrenheit with humidity levels reaching the 70% percentile range during mid afternoon hours causing excessive heat throughout the island chain. Please take every precaution while outdoors to beat the tropical heat, drink plenty of water, stay in the shade if possible and beware of any signs of heat exhaustion or heat stroke. See link:https://m.facebook.com/profile.php?ref=bookmarks#!/NWSMiami/photos/a.163531347035457.43818.161059913949267/1053505898037993/?type=3&source=48&refid=17&ref=bookmarks&_ft_=top_level_post_id.146874159068214%3Atl_objid.146874159068214%3Athid.100012368910112%3A306061129499414%3A2%3A0%3A1470034799%3A5768711688332367284&__tn__=E

June Weather Summary

The month of June is wrapping up to be a below normal precip month across the lower and middle Keys with deficits ranging between -2.65 inches at Key West and -2.66 inches at Marathon as of today June 27th 2016 unless any significant precip occurs during the next 3 days until the month ends, the month could certainly end below normal, precip wise for this June throughout the island chain. Also registering below normal precip amounts are the upper Keys with North Key Largo tallying in with 4.51 inches of precip so far this month and John Pennekamp State Park measuring 5.35 inches of precip for June so far. Temperature wise, near normal temps across the entire island chain will prevail. Average temps for June in Key West are 88 for a high and 79 for the low, Marathon 88 for a high and 78 for the low and the upper Keys 87 for a high and 77 for the low. Sea surface temperatures across the coastal waters of the island chain remain slightly above normal by 0.5-1.5 degrees fahrenheit. Daytime sea surface temperatures currently measuring between 86 and 89 degrees fahrenheit which should heat up even a little more until it peaks around in early September between a steamy 87 and 90 degree fahrenheit sea surface temperature that can make any ocean lover enjoy these fantastic conditions.

Island Chain Land And Ocean Effects

   Images Courtesy NASA

The Florida Keys island chain and its surrounding bodies of water affects its local weather in a particular way. For example, if we examine the geographical location of this archipelago compared to the Bahamian archipelago we can see a clear distinct geographical position of the Florida Keys island chain to the Bahamian island chain in that the archipelago of the Florida Keys lie on a semi latitudinal northeast to west-southwest position to the Bahamian archipelago that lie on a semi latitudinal northwest to southeast position. Keeping this in mind we can now examine the uniqueness that the Florida Keys weather has compared to the Bahamas. During winter, cold fronts push through the island chain advecting cooler air latitudinally over the Keys, causing temperatures to dip into the 50's and 60's and even sometimes into the 40's. As this cold air mass passes over the relatively warmer water that surrounds the chain of islands it becomes modified and increases the air temperature by at least 5 to 8 degrees warmer across the middle and lower keys compared to the South Florida mainland low temperatures. A shallow layer of stratocumulus clouds always tend to develop when a cold air mass passes over a relatively warmer surface in which the ocean is, therefore it holds a larger quantity of heat and is not affected by radiational cooling effects as the land is, meanwhile this stratocumulus deck that forms passes over the lower and middle keys and also helps contribute in keeping the air temperature a few degrees warmer than the coastal Miami mainland low temperatures in which their air temperature would not be influenced by the ocean or the stratocumulus deck because the cold air advection there would be coming from a north-northwest direction from mainland Florida.

    Images Courtesy NASA

The upper keys are usually not influenced by its surrounding waters to modify it's air temperature in these cold air outbreaks as the trajectory of the cold air advection is more aligned on a north-northwest position which limits the amount of coverage that the cold air mass passes over the surrounding waters of the upper keys therefore the temperature difference there is generally 1 to 3 degrees warmer compared to mainland Miami Dade coastal minimum temperatures. Considering that the same type of cold air mass that passes through the Florida Keys also passes through the western most Bahamas we would have a larger gradient of air temperatures between the Keys and the Bahamas for just two reasons. First, being that there is a larger amount of water between Florida and the northwestern Bahamian islands than from mainland South Florida to Key West therefore the cold air mass would traverse over a greater distance of water leading to a greater modification of the cold air mass on a same general latitudinal location of those two archipelagos. Finally, the last reason is the longitudinal effect of the cold air mass losing its cold dry air characteristics by becoming modified substantially as it traverses southeastward over the tropical maritime waters of the Atlantic Ocean and over the Bahamian chain of islands. Now let's observe the land effects of the Florida Keys upon its local weather during late spring and summer. A common daily weather phenomenon during this time of the year effects Keys weather, the so called "Cloud Lines" which form over the island chain during the early afternoon hours in conjunction with the diurnal heating taking place over the island chain, cumulus clouds develop parallel to the island chain or directly overhead maturing into cumulus congestus (towering cumulus clouds) and even sometimes into cumulonimbus clouds. As a result this microclimate phenomenon has an affect on daily rainfall, on Keys classic waterspout formations and lightning that forms from mature cumulonimbus. Please see links on Florida Keys cloud lines.http://www.srh.noaa.gov/key/?n=cloud_lines

Image Courtesy NWS Key West 

https://www.google.com.br/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/winterawoc/microclimates/EYW/IC43e_Fuentes_Horvorka_EYW_20100331.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwi7vLGTyrTNAhVFIpAKHReZAbwQFggbMAA&usg=AFQjCNFoxAyIag6Ltact8eK8HSiZHXWuLw&sig2=RWsEscY0nUIr3sKNa_Ziew

Saharan Dust In Tropical Paradise

Image Courtesy NASA

The Saharan dust storms that forms in the Saharan Desert of Africa traverses the entire length of the Atlantic Ocean in a 5,000 mile journey from the west coast of Africa westward to the Florida Keys, carried and suspended aloft into the atmosphere by the easterly trade winds. This weather related event occurs in the summer months from June through August causing scenic sunsets and hazy skies with a brownish appearance to it over the island chain. Persons with respitory problems should avoid outdoor activities during these Saharan dust events as it can aggravate or worsen those respitory symptoms. The Saharan dust has a negative effect on tropical cyclones by limiting the amount of tropical disturbances to form convection (showers and thunderstorms) that would initiate the beginning stages and ingredients inorder to develop tropical storms and hurricanes. Saharan dust is associated with dry stable air in the middle and upper layers of the atmosphere acting as an inhibiting factor (inversion layer) in developing cumulonimbus clouds that would normally require a substantial amount of moisture in those layers of the atmosphere for them to develop into mature thunderstorms and maintain the continuous process of thunderstorm genesis inorder for a tropical cyclone to mature and strengthen. On the otherhand these Saharan dust events make-up for some stunning sunset pictures that would make anybody come back to the Florida Keys during a Saharan dust event. See link on Saharan dust montoring.http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/salmain.php?&prod=splitE&time

    Image Courtesy NPS Dry Tortugas 

Tropical Moisture Plume

A tropical moisture plume extending southwest from the Northwest Caribbean Sea, Central America and across the Florida Keys northeastward for several hundred miles over the Southwest Atlantic are associated with the tropical moisture plume that tropical storm Colin was once associated with when it was in the Caribbean Sea still as a tropical disturbance before moving northwestward and developing into a tropical storm in the southern Gulf of Mexico last week. This residual tropical moisture plume has resulted in producing quick moving showers and thunderstorms to move from the Florida Straits north northeastward across the island chain and out to sea. Precipitation amounts from these rapidly moving showers and thunderstorms vary from about a tenth of an inch (.10) up to over four tenths of an inch (+.40) throughout the island chain except in parts of Marathon Key where Curry Hammock State Park received 1.43 of rain likely from a training effect of showers and thunderstorms in that particular area of the middle keys. Otherwise this tropical moisture band should remain in place over the island chain approximately for one more day before dissipating and contributing to June's monthly rainfall for the Florida Keys.

Tropical Storm Colin

Tropical depression number 3 formed overs the southern Gulf of Mexico on June 5th 2016 while it intensified into Tropical Storm Colin later that afternoon. Colin is currently a 50 mph tropical cyclone, producing locally heavy rains over the Southeastern U.S and the Gulf Coast of Florida from the Big Bend of Florida down to the lower Florida Keys. Colin is a asymmetrical tropical storm with all of its inclement weather displaced well to the east and southeast of the center of low pressure. Colin has been experiencing moderate to strong southwesterly wind shear over the last 24 hours. Tropical storm wind gusts of 47 mph have already occurred over the gulf coastal waters of Key West this afternoon and rainfall amounts of up to a quarter of an inch (0.25) at Key West associated with a fast moving squall. Colin is expected to make landfall late tonight or early tomorrow morning over the Big Bend of Florida south of Apalachicola then rapidly move northeastward while skirting the Southeastern U.S coast by tomorrow and transitioning into an extratropical cyclone over the Atlantic Ocean.

Hurricane Season Begins

Today June 1st marks the start of the Atlantic hurricane season which runs until November 30th. As in every year the Atlantic hurricane season is defined by tropical disturbances that develop along the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone or ITCZ. Throughout the season easterly waves called tropical waves migrate from east to west pushed along by the easterly trade winds. As these tropical waves propagate westward they encounter most of the time adverse upper level conditions along its journey in the Atlantic that prohibits them from developing into a minimal tropical cyclone that can trigger a tropical storm or even a full fledged hurricane. Only a small percentage of those tropical waves during the season ever become a tropical cyclone. The so called Cape Verde season is recognized for having the greatest percentage of those tropical waves developing into tropical cyclones and dangerous hurricanes during mid August until around the end of September. A perfect example of a Cape Verde season hurricane is Hurricane"Andrew" during the hurricane season of 1992 in the month of August. As a survivor of this category 5 devastating hurricane I know well the Cape Verde season is the breeding ground for major hurricanes that can effect the U.S east coast, the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. In the beginning of the hurricane season in the months of June and July tropical development tends to be in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and the Western Atlantic. In the middle of the season usually called the peak, development then shifts eastward near the west coast of Africa and the Eastern Atlantic in which the Cape Verde Islands are included. Finally, the latter part of the season then shifts westward again into the Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico during the months of October and November.

Winter and Tropical Weather

The Florida Keys tropical weather plays a major role for businesses that depend on tourists from around the world. During the busy tourist season from December thru April the weather across the Florida Keys may not seem that tropical especially for residents of the island chain. The Florida Keys has a winter dry weather season that varies from year to year but on average it begins from December until April. Usually the first"cool front" makes it down the Florida Keys by the latter part of November plummeting the temperature into the 60's for overnight lows and 70's for high for a couple of days before modifying back into the low 80's for highs. Depending on how frequent cold fronts make it down all the way thru the Florida Keys will depend on how much tropical the weather will be across the island chain. As the winter weather season develops across the rest of the country snowbirds from up north begin to flock towards the island chain in hope of warmer weather in which they always find in comparison to the rest of the countries weather. During the months of December, January and February the frequency of cold fronts clearing the island chain increases substantially and increases the likelihood of colder weather over the island chain during that time period, temperatures may drop significantly with overnight temperatures dipping into the 50's and even 40's occasionally and high temperatures in the mid to upper 60's with the passage of strong cold fronts. Which in turn increases the number of tourists wanting to visit the Florida Keys, as the weather up north would be much more colder and making it enticing to spend Christmas and New Year in a more tropical climate.

Reminiscing About Tropical Weather

Reflecting back on my early experiences with tropical weather information makes me happy and sad at the same time. Happy, just to see how fast weather information is now disseminated to the public. It would've been mind boggling to me 30 years back if someone would've told me that I would be able to not just listen to tropical weather updates on a NOAA weather radio but actually see the tropical cyclone on a smartphone. Growing up in the Keys in the 80's and reminiscing how I would use to wakeup early in the morning just to listen to the latest tropical weather outlook on NOAA weather radio over my Dad's Cb marine radio in his boat on tropical disturbances or even get the latest coordinates on a tropical depression, storm or hurricane that was hundreds of miles away just to plot it on my hurricane tracking map. Tropical weather outlooks back then were issued at 5am, 11am, 5pm and 11pm. I even remember when I was away from home, working with my Dad somewhere and not having immediate access to an FM radio that also broadcasted the tropical weather outlook every 6 hours or so I would always go to a public phone,

yeah a public telephone we use to have those in America too and pay the 25 cents and dial into the National Weather Service to get the latest tropical weather outlook on their 24 hour recordings which also gave you the weather forecasts, marine forecasts, sunrise, sunset times and even high and low tide times for various parts of the Keys. After about two to three years of doing that same routine by listening to the NOAA weather radio transmissions over 162.400 Mhz, FM radio, and listening to the National Weather Service recordings over the telephone to obtain the latest news on the Tropics, I finally purchased my first personal pocket weather radio with an alert mode in 1988. It sure made it easier to get the latest tropical weather outlook, now in my hand. Of course I would watch Don Noe on channel 10 to get the latest tropical weather update visually but that was only until 5pm. I already had back then the compulsive need to get the latest tropical weather information immediately, to let my family know if something was brewing in the Tropics. Now the sad part of reminiscing about how tropical weather shaped my early life is that now I'm a grown man and tropical weather is still my passion but my tropical weather passion for the past I now cannot control or bring back to life.

Breezy Conditions and Tropical Development?

An intensifying high pressure system well off the mid atlantic states and a possible subtropical low forming well east of the Florida Keys has caused a tight pressure gradient to develop across the Keys and surrounding coastal waters. Easterly winds blowing at around 15 to 20 knots across the Keys and coastal waters have led to an issuance of a small craft exercise caution for all Keys surrounding coastal waters until at least Friday.

Then after whatever forms well off of Florida's coast this weekend if it's a hybrid system in which we call in meteorology a subtropical system that sometimes may acquire tropical cyclone characteristics if it festers long enough over ideal water temperatures over the ocean. Therefore if something were to develop either subtropical or tropical it should not impact the Florida Keys as it would track west north westward to north westward towards northeast Florida or possible Georgia and the Carolinas, maybe then winds might slacken to around 10 knots on Keys coastal waters as the pressure gradient would loosen it's grip on the Keys. It's just a reminder that the hurricane season is right around the corner and things can develop even in the month of May.

Keys Waterspouts

Florida Keys waterspouts are a common occurrence during the summer and have been pretty well documented throughout the Keys. The waterspout is in the same family class as the tornado but less destructive than it's predecessor. Florida Keys classic waterspouts form mostly from dark flat base cumulus congestus(towering cumulus) clouds during the morning and early afternoon with light to calm prevailing winds. Often there maybe more than one waterspout forming under the same cloud. To the untrained eye many people will sometimes never realize that an innocent looking towering cumulus cloud can spawn a waterspout. Mostly invisible at first in mid air but spiraling on the ocean surface you can observe its counter clockwise rotation and water being sprayed up and around, this is the first sign of the beginning life cycle of a waterspout. As the waterspout matures condensation usually takes place and the funnel becomes visible all the way down to the ocean's surface where salt water is being sucked up and sprayed around. It's life cycle is usually less than 30 minutes, it's direction and speed of movement are quite erratic and sometimes they just remain stationary. In meteorology we call this a short lived waterspout or a fair weather waterspout. Their wind intensity usually less than 80 mph but when they do come onshore over sections of the Keys you will immediately notice an abrupt increase in the winds and at least very windy conditions for a short while. Light damage will usually occur in it's wake but nonetheless damage is damage with tree limbs down, garbage containers tossed around and even sometimes power cables snapped and hanging loosely. So the next time you see an innocent nice looking tall cumulus cloud over the water with those prevailing conditions calm to light winds rest assure that this may not be the cloud that makes your summer weekend a picture perfect one.

See link on waterspouts:

http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/waterspout.html

Key Largo Thunder and Rain

The Upper Keys received a quick soaking from mother nature this evening. Storms that formed this afternoon over mainland South Florida pushed quikly south eastward toward Key Largo down to Islamorada producing moderate to heavy rainfall thru that part of the island chain. Precip total amounts are still being tallied up but any official amounts won't be disseminated until tomorrow morning. From some unofficial amounts that I have access to, totals range from around a third of an inch up to a half an inch. Nothing extraordinary from this evening's event but it does serve as a reminder that the mainland rainy season in South Florida has begun and it has historically always affected the Upper Keys weather regime in mid May thru early July.

Hurricane Awareness

The Florida Keys lie in a geographical location susceptible to tropical cyclones of all family including the "Hurricane". Known to destroy life and property without discrimination of location from the northeastern U.S east coast all the way down to Key West, Florida and west into the Gulf of Mexico down to the Brownsville,Texas coast. The tropical cyclones including the "Hurricane" that affect the U.S, form in the Atlantic Basin, Caribbean Basin and Gulf of Mexico.

The Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1st and ends on November 30th. Hurricane awareness is a key factor in saving lives and property. It's essential that anyone living in the Florida Keys or visiting have a hurricane plan to put in action if needed. If tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings are issued for your area it is essential to heed to the watches and warnings and listen for further instructions from the Monroe County Emergency Management Office in the Florida Keys, National Hurricane Center or any media outlets of news information.

Please see the helpful YouTube video links in this blog and within this blog site.https://youtu.be/L32y1QKz8XI

Rain Finally Returns

It's been a rainy 12 hours over the Florida Keys this Thursday with measurable precip being reported by all reporting weather stations across the Keys. The interaction of an upper level disturbance moving slowly across the south eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Keys,combined with a weak steering wind flow has caused an eruption of late night thunderstorms which has lasted all this morning until around a little after 12 pm. This has caused varying precipitation amounts across the Keys with the lower and middle keys receiving the brunt of it.
These are some official amounts for the last 24 hours .


Bahia Honda: 1.95
Marathon: 1.62
Key West: 1.23
Key Largo: .80
North Key Largo: .49

Keys Residents

As a resident of Key Largo for 32 years I have to admit that living down here for so long is like almost owning my own weather.You might be asking yourself, owning your own weather? Yeah that's right. Let me give you an example let's say it's summer time here in the Keys and it's June and I wanna go snorkeling next month and let's say my ideal water temperature for snorkeling

is 85 degrees fahrenheit, from living down here so long and from personal experience I know that the water temperature will be 85 degrees plus or minus a degree if not warmer next month. You can see what I mean it's so predictable it's like your able to control or own how much radiation from the sun the ocean will absorb and the amount of cloud cover there will be over the ocean next month. The prevailing weather conditions in the Keys during the middle of summer from July thru September is east to south easterly breezes of 10 to 15 knots occasionally 15 to 20 knots, morning showers, latenight thunderstorms, high temperature in the upper 80's to lower 90's and overnight lows in the upper 70's to lower 80's That's a pretty stagnant weather pattern sometimes we call it down here the "summer doldrums". That's part of life down in the "Tropics".

Keys Summer Weather

A summer like weather pattern has become in trenched over the Keys these past few days with a weak steering flow now developing allowing for convective cloud lines to develop over the lower and middle keys. Temperature wise today there is a large temperature gradient across the Keys,with lower 90's in Marathon Key, mid 80's in Key West and the lower 80's with an overcast sky in Key Largo. Precip wise we've seen little or no rain from a trace amount to. 01 across the entire island chain over the last 24 hours. This wraps up today's weather summary for the Florida Keys.

Key Largo Hi and Low Temps

Good afternoon everybody !! This is Key Largo hi and low temperatures for the last 7 days. As you can see we've begun a more summer like pattern across the Florida Keys. A deep east southeast to southerly wind flow has brung in

            Courtesy: Iowa State University

warmer temps for daytime and night time with mid to upper 80's for highs and lows in the mid to upper 70's and even low 80's, except for one night this past week which dropped to 69 fareinheit. This rounds up this week's mesonet temps for the upper keys.

Introduction

This is a blog about how tropical weather affects the Florida Keys and its habitants. Weather is always in constant change and constantly affecting it's environment in order to keep its habitants aware that the weather is in control of the Florida Keys.